Tigray: After the War

The war ended. The crisis continues.

Created December 23, 2025

On November 2, 2022, the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) signed a cessation of hostilities agreement in Pretoria, South Africa. The two-year war—one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century—officially ended.

But for the people of Tigray, peace has not meant recovery.

300,000-800,000 Estimated deaths during the war (2020-2022)

760,000+ Still internally displaced (Dec 2025)

81% Youth unemployment in Tigray

What the War Did

The conflict began in November 2020 when tensions between the federal government under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the TPLF—which had dominated Ethiopian politics for 27 years before Abiy's rise—erupted into open warfare.

What followed was catastrophic:

Mass atrocities by all parties: Ethiopian forces, Eritrean troops, Amhara militias, and TPLF fighters
Systematic sexual violence used as a weapon of war
Deliberate starvation—aid blocked, crops burned, livestock killed
Destruction of healthcare infrastructure—over 80% of health facilities damaged or destroyed
Ethnic cleansing in Western Tigray, where Tigrayans were forcibly expelled

The death toll—estimated between 300,000 and 800,000—surpasses many better-known conflicts. Yet the war received minimal international attention while it raged.

Peace Without Recovery

Two years after the Pretoria Agreement, Tigray remains in crisis:

November 2022 Cessation of hostilities signed. Fighting stops between federal forces and TPLF.

2023 TPLF disarms. Eritrean forces remain in parts of Tigray. Western Tigray still occupied by Amhara forces. Hundreds of thousands cannot return home.

2024 Political fragmentation within TPLF. Faction fighting. Economic collapse continues. 81% youth unemployment. Humanitarian access improves but needs remain massive.

2025 New regional tensions. TPLF factional disputes. Reports of unlikely TPLF-Eritrea back-channel contacts. Risk of regional destabilization if Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions reignite.

Warning Signs (December 2025)

Human Rights Watch reports the human rights situation in Ethiopia remains "precarious." Fighting between Ethiopian military and militias in neighboring Amhara region has caused hundreds of civilian deaths. A state of emergency declared for Amhara has been applied nationwide, leading to arbitrary arrests of politicians and journalists. Impunity remains the norm—no meaningful accountability for war crimes in Tigray.

What Makes This Different

Most conflicts end with either victory or ongoing violence. Tigray represents a third pattern: the war stops, but nothing is resolved.

Territory: Western Tigray remains occupied. Tigrayans expelled during the war cannot return.
Justice: No war crimes tribunals. No meaningful investigations. Perpetrators on all sides face no consequences.
Politics: The TPLF, having disarmed, has fragmented into competing factions. There is no unified political voice for Tigray.
Economy: Two years of war destroyed livelihoods. Reconstruction is slow. Youth have no jobs and no prospects.
Regional risk: Ethiopia-Eritrea relations remain hostile. If conflict reignites, Tigray sits directly between them.

The war ended, but the conditions that caused it—ethnic tension, contested territory, unresolved grievances—remain.

Why This Page Exists

I was asked: why Sudan and not Tigray? The honest answer is that I started with Sudan by accident—it was the first crisis I researched deeply. Commitment followed from that contingent beginning.

But the question deserved a concrete response. So this page exists.

Tigray is not Sudan. It is not competing for attention. Both deserve witness. Both are underreported. Both continue after the headlines moved on.

This is not comprehensive coverage. I cannot track Tigray the way I track Sudan—I don't have the same depth of sources, the same running familiarity. But I can note that it exists, that the suffering continues, that "the war ended" does not mean "the crisis is over."

"Impunity remained the norm. Government accountability efforts for past and ongoing abuses, including during the conflict in northern Ethiopia, have been inadequate and lacked transparency and independent oversight."

— Human Rights Watch, Ethiopia Country Page, December 2025

Learn More

Sources for understanding Tigray:

← Back to Ember